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Aaron Nesmith player props
Full game log & hit rates on common lines ›
IND vs ATL · Mon 7:40 PM ET · Active · updated 8:56 AM
His numbers, in charts
Every chart uses his real game logs. Past results, not a prediction.
Points
Tonight's FanDuel line 12.5 · Over +100 / Under -132
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Last 6 games · over 12.5 in 3 of 6 · average 12.2
How often he hits common marks (last 6)
Averages (games played)
Dashed mark = tonight's line 12.5. Teal = average above it, red = below. Home/away use this season.
Rebounds
Tonight's FanDuel line 3.5 · Over +134 / Under -180
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Last 6 games · over 3.5 in 1 of 6 · average 2.2
How often he hits common marks (last 6)
Averages (games played)
Dashed mark = tonight's line 3.5. Teal = average above it, red = below. Home/away use this season.
Assists
Tonight's FanDuel line 1.5 · Over -166 / Under +124
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Last 6 games · over 1.5 in 3 of 6 · average 1.8
How often he hits common marks (last 6)
Averages (games played)
Dashed mark = tonight's line 1.5. Teal = average above it, red = below. Home/away use this season.
Made Threes
Tonight's FanDuel line 1.5 · Over -130 / Under -102
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Last 6 games · over 1.5 in 3 of 6 · average 1.7
How often he hits common marks (last 6)
Averages (games played)
Dashed mark = tonight's line 1.5. Teal = average above it, red = below. Home/away use this season.
Minutes trend (last 6)
Oldest → newest. Dashed = this season average 23.0 min. More minutes usually means more chances.
Computed by Slip Surgeon from public NBA box scores, updated once a day. "Over" means he beat the line; 24.5 needs 25+.
Free stats for Aaron Nesmith (Indiana Pacers G): his FanDuel lines, how he did against them lately, and how Atlanta Hawks defend his position.
FanDuel lines
| Prop | Line | Over | Under | Implied (over) | DvP vs ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Points | 12.5 | +100 | -132 | 50.0% | 29th of 30 |
| Rebounds | 3.5 | +134 | -180 | 42.7% | 21st of 30 |
| Assists | 1.5 | -166 | +124 | 62.4% | 22nd of 30 |
| Made Threes | 1.5 | -130 | -102 | 56.5% | 30th of 30 |
| Pts + Reb + Ast | 17.5 | -110 | -120 | 52.4% | - |
| Pts + Reb | 15.5 | -108 | -122 | 51.9% | - |
| Pts + Ast | 14.5 | -102 | -130 | 50.5% | - |
| Reb + Ast | 5.5 | +120 | -160 | 45.5% | - |
FanDuel Sportsbook (Michigan) prices, captured at build time; implied % includes the book's margin. DvP rank 1 = the defense that allows the most of that stat to his position this season.
Model read
No strong pick on his lines right now. That's not a lean either way. See the Hunter for every leg that did.
Atlanta Hawks defense vs guards
- Points: allows the 29th-most to guards (44.7 per game, -21.2% vs league average).
- Rebounds: allows the 21st-most to guards (14.4 per game, -8.0% vs league average).
- Assists: allows the 22nd-most to guards (14.3 per game, -8.1% vs league average).
- Made Threes: allows the 30th-most to guards (5.1 per game, -32.9% vs league average).
Full breakdown: Atlanta Hawks defense vs position.
When Obi Toppin is outOut tonight · -1.2 pts, +1.9 min in 33 g without him
Obi Toppin is Out (Back). Here's how Aaron Nesmith has done in games Obi Toppin missed, next to games they played together.
| Per game | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | PRA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Without him | 33 | 29.5 | 13.2 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 19.8 |
| With him | 18 | 27.6 | 14.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 18.7 |
| Change | +1.9 | -1.2 | +1.6 | +0.9 | -0.5 | +1.1 |
How we count it: regular-season games from 2025-26 and 2026-27 on the same team (2 of the 33 games without him are from this season). Small samples swing a lot. Built from Slip Surgeon's game logs (ESPN public box scores). Past results, not a prediction.
Game log & hit rateslast 6: 12.2 pts · 23.0 min
How often Aaron Nesmith went over each FanDuel line he has tonight. Splits use this season; "vs ATL" covers every game against them this season (regular season only).
| Line | L5 | L10 | Szn | Home | vs ATL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PTS 12.5 | 3/5 | 3/6 | 3/6 | 1/3 | - |
| REB 3.5 | 0/5 | 1/6 | 1/6 | 1/3 | - |
| AST 1.5 | 3/5 | 3/6 | 3/6 | 1/3 | - |
| 3PM 1.5 | 3/5 | 3/6 | 3/6 | 1/3 | - |
| PRA 17.5 | 2/5 | 2/6 | 2/6 | 2/3 | - |
| P+R 15.5 | 1/5 | 1/6 | 1/6 | 1/3 | - |
| P+A 14.5 | 3/5 | 3/6 | 3/6 | 2/3 | - |
| R+A 5.5 | 1/5 | 1/6 | 1/6 | 1/3 | - |
Last 6 games
| Date | Opp | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | PRA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/1 | vs BKN | 30 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 18 |
| 10/30 | @ MIA | 21 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 10/28 | vs PHI | 27 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 21 |
| 10/26 | @ MIL | 21 | 13 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 10/25 | @ BKN | 19 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 10/23 | vs DAL | 20 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 |
| This season averages | G | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All games | 6 | 23.0 | 12.2 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Home | 3 | 25.7 | 12.7 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Away | 3 | 20.3 | 11.7 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2.0 |
Computed by Slip Surgeon from public NBA box scores and play-by-play (regular season, games through 2026-11-01), updated once a day. "Over" means he beat the line; a line of 19.5 needs 20+. Past results, not a prediction. Model picks, not promises.
Quarter by quarter3+ every Q: 1/6 last 6
How often Aaron Nesmith scored in every quarter (Q1 to Q4, overtime not counted). A quarter he sat out counts as a miss.
| Minutes | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg | 6 | 5 | 7.4 | 4.7 |
| League rank | 173/307 | 217/307 | 91/307 | 217/307 |
In blowouts (18+ either way after 3 quarters, 2 g) he averaged 3.7 Q4 minutes vs 4.4 in close games. Low 4th-quarter minutes: a risk for every-quarter legs. How we count it: minutes rebuilt from ESPN's substitution log and checked against the box score (games that don't match within 1.5 min are left out); rank is among 307 rotation players (12+ min a game).
| Span | Games | 1+ every Q | 3+ every Q | 5+ every Q |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 season | 6 | 33% (2) | 17% (1) | 0% (0) |
| Last 6 games | 6 | 33% (2) | 17% (1) | 0% (0) |
| 2025-26 season | 45 | 27% (12) | 13% (6) | 2% (1) |
| Avg points | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Min floor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 season | 1.8 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 19 |
| Last 6 games | 1.8 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 19 |
| 2025-26 season | 3.8 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 15 |
Min floor = his fewest minutes in that span. Computed by Slip Surgeon from ESPN's public NBA play-by-play (regular season, games through 2026-11-01); every game is checked against the box score. Past results, not a prediction.
Whole game: Hawks vs Pacers player props. All players: NBA player props.
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